Research

• “Welfare access and inactivity gaps: Revisiting the racial divergence in unemployment rates” (with Gonzalo Dona), Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming. [DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/soej.70035]
  
  

• “Do unlimited homework attempts improve student learning outcomes? Evidence across sociodemographic backgrounds” (with Gonzalo Dona), Journal of Education for Business, Volume 100, Issue 5, pages 208-215, 2025. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08832323.2025.2501648]
  
  

• “Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK”, International Review of Economics and Finance, Volume 96, 2024. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103625]
  
  

• "Authorities' Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic?" (with Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, and Alejandro Werner), Economia (LACEA Journal ), Volume 22, Issue 1, pages 135-152, 2023. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.416]
  
  

• "What drives economic growth forecast revisions? " (with Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Ricci, and Alejandro Werner), Review of International Economics, Volume 31, Issue 3, pages 1068-1092, 2023. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12653]
  
  

• "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with Rolling-Windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 56, 2021. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101362]
  
  

• "Political Advertising, Expectations, and Household Consumption" (with Cody Couture and Abhiprerna Smit)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of political advertising on household consumption behavior in the United States. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits variation in advertisement exposure across media market borders, we show that exposure to political advertisements significantly affects household consumption. Weekly county-level nondurable spending increases by 0.24% for every additional one standard deviation of positive economic-themed advertisements. The effect is heterogeneous by county-level demographics, with a stronger consumption response from counties with a higher proportion of older and low-income residents. We also provide evidence on the underlying mechanisms, showing that these effects operate through changes in household sentiment and the economic information conveyed in the advertisements. 

• "Do IMF economists believe in the Phillips Curve? Evidence from the WEO country groups" (with Cody Couture)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether forecasters at the International Monetary Fund rely on the Phillips curve when producing inflation forecasts, and whether this belief varies systematically across country groups. We use data from the World Economic Outlook database to test for evidence of Phillips curve dynamics in both forecasts and observables. We find strong evidence that IMF forecasts for advanced economies are theory-consistent and align with the relationship observed in ex-post data. In contrast, our results show an inverted or flat relationship in both forecasts and actuals for emerging market and developing economies, suggesting limited relevance of the Phillips curve framework in these country groups. Our findings are robust across time periods, forecast horizons, model specifications, and alternative measures of economic activity.

• "Does sentiment matter for forecasting? Forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model"

Abstract

Recent literature suggests that psychological factors explain a substantial part of the fluctuations in the US business cycle. While these factors have started to be included in new empirical research, the forecast properties of these models are yet to be explored. This paper tests the forecast performance of a small-scale DSGE model with sentiment shocks. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed, instead agents are assumed to behave in a near-rational fashion: every period they learn and update their beliefs using a constant gain learning algorithm. Sentiment shocks are captured by exploiting observed data on expectations and are defined as the deviations from the model implied expectations due to exogenous waves of pessimism or optimism. The forecast evaluation is accomplished by comparing the root mean squared prediction error of the benchmark 3-equation New Keynesian model at different horizons and under different expectation assumptions: rational expectations, learning, and learning with sentiment. The results show that the model with learning and sentiment shocks is not only able to compete with the other two alternatives, but it is generally better to forecast the output gap and the inflation rate.